Last Updated: 5/21/2025 11:39:00 PM
According to an academic adviser to the central bank, China economy will bottom out this quarter and rebound in the following three months as government measures to stabilize a slowdown take effect. Mr Chen Yulu said “The second quarter should be the lowest point this year. Full year growth should be able to hold up above 8%. He said that the slowdown in growth has exceeded expectations. Mr Chen, who is president of the university, sits on the monetary policy committee of the People Bank of China.” China economic expansion slid to 8.1% in the first three months of the year from a year earlier, the fifth quarterly deceleration. Bank of America Corp estimates the decline may deepen to 7% to 7.5% in the three months through June. Credit Suisse Group AG has reduced China growth estimate for this year to 7.7% which would be the slowest pace in 13 years on weakness in exports, investment and corporate profits. Deutsche Bank AG lowered its forecast to 7.9%. The predictions compare with a 9.2% expansion last year. Mr Robert Mundell a Nobel Prize-winning economist credited as the intellectual father of the euro said China could let the yuan decline against the US dollar to avoid further slowdown pressure in a scenario where the sovereign debt crisis in Europe led to a sharp fall in the euro. He said that a drop in the euro to below USD 1.18 would be a good time with the Chinese government to let its currency depreciate, go down against the dollar because if the dollar is going up rapidly and if China goes up with it, it would bring a new kind of slowdown to China. PBOC adviser Chen said Europe has the capacity to solve its problems. The European Union could issue euro bonds to resolve Greece fiscal woes and China could help out by buying some of those bonds. He said that leaders attending the Group of 20 meeting in Mexico next week should help France President Mr Francois Hollande win German cooperation on the issue.